文章标题及来源: IMF lifts US growth forecast but marks down China

内容：

WASHINGTON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy will continue to provide most of the thrust（推力） for global growth through the balance of this year and in 2025, led by （领导）robust（强大的） consumer spending that has held up （高举）through a wrenching bout of inflation（通货膨胀） and the high interest rates used to tame（驯服） it, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

路透华盛顿 10 月 22 日 - 国际货币基金组织（IMF）周二表示，美国经济将在今年和 2025 年剩余时间内继续为全球增长提供大部分推动力，其中强劲的消费者支出在一轮痛苦的通胀和用来抑制通胀的高利率中保持了下来。

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its 2024 and 2025 economic growth forecasts for the U.S. - the only developed economy to see its outlook marked up for both years - and its chief economist said the "soft landing" sought by the Federal Reserve in which inflation eases （减轻）without big damage to the job market had largely been achieved.

在最新的《世界经济展望》中，国际货币基金组织（IMF）上调了对美国 2024 年和 2025 年经济增长的预测，美国是唯一一个连续两年都上调前景的发达经济体，其首席经济学家表示，美联储寻求的“软着陆”，即通胀缓解，而不会对就业市场造成重大损害，这在很大程度上已经实现。

Emerging market powerhouses（强国） India and Brazil also stood out（脱颖而出） on the upside of the IMF forecasts, while it dialed back growth expectations（期望值） for China for this year and left next year's forecast for the world's No. 2 economy at a below-trend 4.5%.

新兴市场大国印度和巴西在国际货币基金组织预测的上行中脱颖而出，同时下调了对中国今年的增长预期，并将明年对世界第二大经济体的预测保持在低于趋势水平的 4.5%。

Still, it warned that risks（风险） abound from armed conflicts, potential （潜在）new trade（贸易） wars and the hangover from the tight monetary policy employed by the Fed and other central banks to rein in inflation.

尽管如此，该机构警告称，武装冲突、潜在的新贸易战以及美联储和其他央行为控制通胀而采取的紧缩货币政策的后遗症带来的风险比比皆是。

"Today, the IMF reported that the United States is leading the advanced economies on growth for the second year in a row," Lael Brainard, the director of the White House's National Economic Council, said in a statement（陈述）.

“今天，国际货币基金组织（IMF）报告称，美国连续第二年在增长方面领先发达经济体，”白宫国家经济委员会（National Economic Council）主任莱尔·布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）在一份声明中说。

The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook said the shifts will leave 2024 global GDP growth unchanged from the 3.2% projected by the global lender in July, setting a lackluster（低迷） tone for growth as world finance（金融）leaders gather in Washington this week for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新一期《世界经济展望》（World Economic Outlook）表示，这些变化将使2024年全球GDP增长与该全球贷款机构7月份预测的3.2%持平，在世界金融领袖本周齐聚华盛顿参加国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行（World Bank）年会之际，为增长定下了乏善可陈的基调。

Global growth is projected to be 3.2% in 2025, one-tenth of a percentage point lower than forecast in July, while medium-term growth is expected to （预期）fade to （淡化）a "mediocre（平庸）" 3.1% in five years, well below its pre-pandemic trend, the report showed.

报告显示，预计 2025 年全球增长率为 3.2%，比 7 月份的预测低十分之一个百分点，而中期增长率预计将在五年内回落至“平庸”的 3.1%，远低于疫情前的趋势。

Nonetheless（尽管如此）, the IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said some countries, including the U.S., were showing resilience.

尽管如此，国际货币基金组织首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维尔·古兰查斯（Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas）表示，包括美国在内的一些国家正在表现出韧性。

"The news on the U.S. is very good in a sense（意义）," Gourinchas said at a press conference （会议）in Washington. "The labor（劳动） market picture remains（仍是） one that is fairly robust, even though it has cooled off."

“从某种意义上说，美国的消息非常好，”古兰查斯在华盛顿的新闻发布会上说。“劳动力市场形势仍然相当强劲，尽管它已经降温。”

"I think the risks of a recession（衰退） in the U.S. in the absence of a very sharp（尖锐） shock would be somewhat diminished（减少）," he said.

他说。“我认为，在没有非常剧烈的冲击的情况下，美国经济衰退的风险会在一定程度上降低，”。

Although Gourinchas said it looked as if the global inflation battle had largely been won, he told Reuters in an interview（面试） there is a risk that monetary （货币）policy could "mechanically" become too tight without interest rate cuts in some countries as inflation subsides（消退）, weighing on growth and jobs.

尽管 Gourinchas 表示，全球通胀之战似乎已基本获胜，但他在接受路透社采访时表示，随着通胀消退，一些国家如果不降息，货币政策可能会“机械性地”变得过于紧缩，从而拖累增长和就业。

CONSUMER STRENGTH

The IMF revised its 2024 U.S. growth forecast upward by two-tenths of a percentage point to 2.8% due largely to stronger-than-expected consumption fueled by rising wages and asset prices. The global lender also upgraded its 2025 U.S. growth outlook by three-tenths of a percentage point to 2.2%, slightly delaying a return to trend growth.

Brazil got a sharp upgrade of nine-tenths of a percentage point, raising its projected growth rate this year to 3.0%, also on the back of stronger private consumption and investment. Mexico's growth, however, was marked down by seven-tenths of a percentage point to 1.5% because of the effects of tighter monetary policy.

The IMF cut China's 2024 growth rate by two-tenths of a percentage point to 4.8%, with a boost from net exports partly offsetting continued weakness in the property sector and low consumer confidence. The IMF's 2025 China growth forecast, which was unchanged, does not include any impact from Beijing's recently announced fiscal stimulus plans, which are still largely undefined.

Germany will see zero growth this year, a markdown of two-tenths of a percentage point, as its manufacturing sector continues to struggle, the IMF projected. The reduction helped to drag down the forecast for overall euro zone growth slightly to 0.8% for 2024 and 1.2% for 2025 despite a half-percentage-point upgrade that pushed Spain's projected growth to 2.9%.

Britain's long-suffering growth outlook got a boost of four-tenths of a percentage point to 1.1% for 2024 as falling inflation and lower interest rates are expected to stoke consumer demand. The growth forecast for Japan was lowered by four-tenths of a percentage point to 0.3% due to the lingering effects of supply disruptions.

India continues to be a bright spot, with the strongest projected growth among major economies at 7.0% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025, unchanged from the July outlook.

TRADE RISKS

In counting risks to the outlook, the IMF report flagged the potential for major tariff increases and retaliatory measures, but it did not single out U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's vow to impose tariffs of 10% on global imports to the U.S., and 60% on goods from China.

Instead, it contained a proxy adverse scenario that includes 10% two-way tariffs among the U.S., euro zone and China plus 10% U.S. tariffs on the rest of the world, reduced migration to the U.S. and Europe, and financial market turmoil that tightens financial conditions. Were this to occur, the IMF said it would reduce the overall global GDP output level by 0.8% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.

Other risks outlined in the report included the potential for a spike in the prices of oil and other commodities should conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine widen.

The IMF also cautioned countries against pursuing industrial policies to protect domestic industries and workers, saying that they often fail to deliver sustained improvements in living standards.